Bitcoin Price Is Not Bitcoin Value
Bitcoin price slammed down to 1-day chart support today after a series of lower lows since the April top. The bulls kept buying even at the corrective highs, but are losing courage as an annual support comes under threat…
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Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Bitcoin price declined to its 1-day 20-period moving average at $440 today.
Speculation is doing the rounds that the sell-off was due to reports about a certain Craig Wright’s claim that he is, in fact, the visionary Satoshi Nakamoto. The analysis below will ignore the news event and remain focussed on the chart technicals that heralded today’s decline.
The Bitstamp exchange has been subject to some telling sell spikes recently. The first (while an exuberant buying spree to resistance was underway) reached all the way to the nearest support floor at $370. While the market was trying its best to mount $470, no more than eight consecutive hourly price candles reached down to near $410 – the level of an ascending Fib line from the January 2015 low.
After retracing most of the advance on April 27, the compulsively bullish market traded price back to the 1-hour 200-period moving average (200MA) but failed to remain above it for the day. Simultaneously, RSI had reverse diverged to the corrective advance top (magenta annotation) which, technically, required a move lower.
After attempting the 200MA again, yesterday, yet another RSI reverse divergence (second set of magenta annotations) sealed the fate of price. Upon falling below both the 20MA (green) and 200MA (red) even the most deep-pocketed retail bulls knew it was sell or lose.
The market will most likely find support at the current juncture of $440 and repeat the steps above in a narrowing range until the bottom drops out from below the chart. In this case, $400 and $370 should be achieved in quick succession.
Bitcoin price is in decline for the short-term. It remains to be seen whether US traders also sell bitcoin based on the less-man-more-mouse impostor presenting himself to the world as Satoshi Nakamoto, today. To the downside is $370. To the upside is time-proven advance failure at $470.
Bitcoin users and true believers are reminded of the market maxim to “Never confuse price with value”. This is an exchange chart price being actively (and aggressively) speculated by both the clever and the greedy. The Bitcoin protocol’s value is immeasurable and represents humankind’s most important discovery to date. Fundamentally, the protocol’s value probably far exceeds $100,000 per bitcoin, but the exchange price is merely the result of a tough game of probability bets.
It is best not to confuse price with value. As censorship-resistant, programmable money and a disruptor of centralized authority, Bitcoin is valuable beyond measure.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume